Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 11% for "Will Tesla release Optimus by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.5 points. The market has traded $107K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Tesla's ongoing conversion of its Fremont factory line for Optimus production, confirmed in the July 22 Q2 2026 shareholder update, remains the central driver of market odds. Official statements indicate the first-generation lines are now being installed with low-volume output anticipated later this year, initially for internal data collection rather than customer deliveries. Gen 3 hardware refinements and AI5 chip integration continue amid competitive pressure from other humanoid developers, while Musk has reiterated slow initial ramps and a 2027 target for broader availability. Traders are watching for any updates on actual unit output or external deployments ahead of the next earnings cycle, as historical timelines for new Tesla hardware have frequently slipped.

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